Back-to-school shopping trends signal earlier, budget-conscious holiday buying

Back-to-school (BTS) shoppers started earlier, spent more cautiously, and favored targeted value over blanket discounts. Back-to-school shopping was a stress test for holiday readiness. Here’s what the data tells us, and how to respond. 

Back-to-school sales: what changed and why it matters 

BTS shopping kicked off early this year, with 67% of K-12 and college shoppers already starting shopping by early July—the biggest early start since NRF began tracking the back to school season. Tariff-related price increases were a big driver, with half saying they moved faster into buy mode to avoid those hits.  

Families planned to spend $858 on average for K-12 (down from 2024), but total K-12 spend prediction ticked up to $39.4B, signaling more shopping despite tighter wallets. This might be because there’s not a ton of choice: if your kid needs new shoes for school, it’s not a discretionary purchase (vs. the holiday season, when gifts are not thought of as the same level of necessity). Online remains the top choice for 55% of consumers, with discount stores getting more traction as shoppers looked for value over loyalty.  

Households are distinguishing “need” vs. “want,” more than ever, expecting uneven price increases as tariffs and cost-of-living costs roll through the commerce world. More deal hunting, more shop-hopping, and more comparison across big events is the norm.  

These patterns—early research, cart building, and channel switching—mirror what we saw over the big summer sales events, and what we told you to prepare beforehand. 

That discretion has also affected buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) usage, which is rising into late summer. Consumers spent $7.8 billion via BNPL in July, up 16.6% yoy, a clear signal for Q4 budgets, according to Adobe Business. 

Key differences in 2025 back-to-school shopping

• Earlier start and longer purchase window. Families chipped away at lists during July events like Prime Day and Walmart Deals, then paused to wait for district lists and late-season apparel decisions, according to NRF.

• Targeted value offers beat blanket discounts. Shoppers respond to relevance (bundles, student perks, durability claims) as much as raw price. Deep, across-the-board cuts aren’t necessary to win the cart.

• Cross-channel comparison is the default. Pricing parity and clean content matter more than ever to prevent abandonment.

What we’re seeing in-market  

Several leading retailers we work with rode out BTS seasonality with no major promotions, and still saw strong demand. For most companies we’re working with who rely on BTS sales, they’ve had little paid push but are still finding that the calendar itself fueled conversion. 

In August, the following categories surged (and cooled): 

• Apparel and footwear stayed resilient as “needs,” helped by off-price and pointed promos, according to NRF. 

• Tech and audio sold well from July through college move-in (laptops, headphones, small appliances), according to Adobe. 

• Backpacks, lunch boxes, and calculators sold fast during July sales and when schools posted supply lists. 

• Shoppers chose store brands and value packs, but mid-season sales slowed and retailers sold fewer items, according to Circana. 

What will this mean for holiday season? 

Everything we’re seeing—value scrutiny, channel switching, event-day triangulation—will define peak shopping season. Here’s what you can expect:  

• Two conversion waves: early research, late-season purchase. Summer event shoppers researched early and converted when the price felt right; BTS saw the same, so expect more coming into the holidays. Plan two waves: early season list building and end season urgency. 

• Tariff news may shift purchase timing. If price-rise rumors accelerate, shoppers pay attention and try to get ahead. If it cools, more will likely look for promotions instead of focus on that anxiety of getting ahead. With the White House’s 90-day extension of the China tariff truce into mid-November 2025, shoppers may be more inclined to wait for big promos. But if the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s product exclusions are not extended beyond Aug. 31, some tariff-sensitive purchases could be pulled forward into September, according to KPMG. 

• More cart building, abandonment, and reactivation. Shoppers build their “list” within your cart, they look around for better deals. Track why shoppers are waiting (price watching, incomplete lists, budget staggering) and answer with saved carts, wishlist nudges, and price-drop alerts.  

Want more? Check out our primer on peak season preparedness.  

Meghan Barden is Director, Global Retail Media, Rithum.